\n
\n財政司司長陳茂波在上月底表示,過去幾年採取擴張性財政政策,花費幾千億元,加上每次派發消費券,亦花費不少公帑,認為在兼顧支出和投資未來發展上,仍需要進一步聽取公眾意見。
\n
\n學者:宏觀經濟角度 不必要再派消費券
\n\n一直有研究消費券效用的香港中文大學經濟系教授宋錚表示,消費券在過去疫情比較嚴重的時間,曾經對拉動經濟起到很大作用,特別是去年1萬元的消費券,對去年全年私人消費,按年跌幅控制至1.1%,是功不可沒。
\n
\n不過,消費券已經連續派發兩年,有變成常規措施的傾向,在刺激經濟的角度,作用將會大打折扣,加上經濟已經踏入復常,似乎無必要再派。「每年派發容易令人形成固定預期,習慣每年都會收到消費券,有可能逐步降低刺激宏觀經濟的效果,另一邊廂,經濟逐步恢復下,仍要面對有較大金額財赤,從單純幫助本港走出宏觀經濟窘境角度下,我看不到需要再派發消費券的必要。」
\n
\n倡再派消費券 只為期望管理政策退場
\n
\n不過,宋錚說,考慮到部分低收入人士,仍有可能需要消費券紓緩經濟困難,他認為政府仍有條件考慮持續派發,但可以減少派發金額,希望做到期望管理之餘,又可以令此項非常規政策得以平穩「退場」。
\n
\n「假設一位老人,沒有特別多收入,過去兩年收取消費券,已對政府持續派發形成期望,或者會提早規劃如何利用新一輪消費券,且因手頭鬆動,有機會已提早花費手上積蓄。若果政府完全終止派發,將會對他們的生活構成影響,因此適度再派發,可以有助市民,順利形成消費券最終會結束派發的思維。」
\n
\n刺激固定資產投資效果或更勝一籌
\n
\n宋錚說,本港另一個經濟引擎,固定資產投資的總額去年下跌8.5%,但回報率依然有10厘或以上,與美國看齊,認為政府相比其他地區有多一個選擇,將刺激經濟大方向轉向投資,不過則提醒做法要小心,以免資源錯配,令私人投資與公營投資失衡。「政府帶頭刺激本地投資,有可能造成一些負面作用,包括有機會變成排擠私人投資,以及政府有機會將資源集中於基礎建設,可能令部分基建類別出現投資過剩情況。」
\n
\n他又說,對今年經濟前景整體看法樂觀,未見到本港會出現較大困難,不過提醒內地經濟恢復需時,認為不要指望復常後,能夠單靠內地消費帶動經濟強勁反彈,長遠而言仍要致力改善較長期增長因素,如創新、科技發展等。
\n
\n記者:麥嘉恩
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